Our Process = Invaluable Results.

1/ Define Current Conditions.

While no market conditions are ever exactly the same, we can define current conditions by noting a few to several key characteristics which describe the present market behavior for an asset. Once defined, these conditions provide the basis for our query.

For example, in this chart we see that Bitcoin (BTC/USD) just [1] closed at its lowest level in the past 30+ days, [2] closed at least 20% below its 20MA, [3] its short-term RSI3 closed at an unusually low level under 10, and lastly the 50-day MA of the Bitcoin Hashrate is rising (not shown).

2/ Quantify the Results.

Once current conditions have been defined and a holding period chosen, we run a test to find out how the asset has performed under the same conditions in the past. 

In this example, we can see that the current conditions have occurred only 14 times in the past, produced a profit 78.6% of the time, and hypothetically returned an average result of +38.8% per trade with a 90-day holding period. Other stats typically include the best result, worst result, and Profit Factor, a measurement of gross gains vs. gross losses. A Profit Factor of 6.11 indicates that gross gains are over 6X the amount of gross losses, a historically powerful reading suggesting that the current conditions favor the Bulls.

3/ Compare Key Metrics over Multiple Holding Periods.

Traders and investors have highly varied holding times dependent on a myriad of factors. For this reason, we display results over short-term, intermediate-term, and longer-term time horizons to better assess risk and reward.

Here we see a comparison of average gain, average loss, and the win % (percent profitable) over a variety of holding periods ranging from 7 days to 365 days. Comparing key metrics over a variety of holding periods provides invaluable information for making crucial decisions about risk and reward. 

4/ Reveal Relationships.

Traders and investors may also prioritize risk, reward and trade frequency differently.  Through our proprietary REKTelligence ratios we score current market behavior based on historical tendencies over various holding times, revealing hidden relationships in the data.

For example, the REKTelligence UNREKT Ratio provides a risk-adjusted score across short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term holding periods to identify the timeframes with the best historical payoff for risk-minded traders and investors. Taking into account profit factor, win %, and largest loss results, the UNREKT Ratio shows us that the 7-day and 365-day holds have historically delivered the best risk-adjusted returns despite their dramatically different trade lengths.

5/ Deliver Our Technical View, TLDR, and NonceSense.

Every REKTelligence Report also includes our Technical View where we put today's market conditions and stats for Bitcoin, Ether, and other relevant coins or tokens into the broader context of technical analysis, proprietary market models, and dominant narratives driving supply and demand. For the time-pressed, our TLDR summarizes the whole damn enchilada in bullet form while NonceSense closes out each report with semi-random dispatches from the frontline.